New Energy Vehicles: It is expected that the global sales of new energy vehicles in 2024 are expected to exceed 17 million units, an increase of more than 20% year-on-year. Among them, the Chinese market is expected to continue to occupy more than 50% of the global share, sales will exceed 10.5 million units (excluding exports). Matching, 2024 global power shipments are expected to realize more than 20% growth.
Energy storage: it is expected that in 2024 the global new photovoltaic installed capacity of 508GW, a year-on-year growth of 22%. Taking into account the energy storage demand is positively correlated with photovoltaic, distribution and storage rate and distribution and storage time, global energy storage shipments in 2024 is expected to realize more than 40% growth.
New energy battery demand volatility factors: economy and supply, inventory fluctuations, off-peak season switching, overseas policies, new technology changes will affect the demand for new energy batteries.
Global energy storage shipments expected to grow more than 40% by 2024
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), global new PV installations reached 420GW in 2023, up 85% year-on-year. Global new PV installations are expected to be 508GW in 2024, up 22% year-on-year. Assuming that the demand for energy storage = PV * distribution rate * distribution duration, the demand for energy storage is expected to be positively correlated with PV installations in some countries or regions in 2024. According to InfoLink data, in 2023, the global energy storage core shipments reached 196.7 GWh, of which large-scale and industrial and commercial energy storage, household storage, respectively, 168.5 GWh and 28.1 GWh, the fourth quarter showed a peak season situation, the ringgit growth of only 1.3%. According to EVTank data, in 2023, the global energy storage battery shipments reached 224.2GWh, an increase of 40.7% year-on-year, of which 203.8GWh of energy storage battery shipments by Chinese companies, accounting for 90.9% of global energy storage battery shipments. It is expected that global energy storage shipments are expected to realize more than 40% growth in 2024.
Ending:
In general, about the new energy battery demand fluctuations of factors broadly speaking, there are five aspects: brand or model supply to create demand, the economy to enhance the willingness to install; pulling up the volatility of the bullwhip effect of the inventory; term mismatch, the industry demand off-peak seasons; the overseas policy this is an uncontrollable factor; the impact of the demand for new technologies.
Post time: May-06-2024