Driven by the "double carbon" policy to reduce carbon emissions, the national power generation structure will see significant changes. After 2030, with the improvement of energy storage infrastructure and other supporting equipment, China is expected to complete the transition from fossil-based power generation to new energy-based power generation by 2060, with the proportion of new energy generation reaching over 80%.
The "double carbon" policy will drive the pattern of China's power generation materials from fossil energy to new energy gradually, and it is expected that by 2060, China's new energy generation will account for more than 80%.
At the same time, to solve the problem of "unstable" pressure brought by large-scale grid connection on the side of new energy generation, the "distribution and storage policy" on the side of power generation will also bring new breakthroughs for the energy storage side.
"Dual carbon policy development
In September 2020, at the 57th session of the United Nations General Assembly, China formally proposed a "double carbon" goal of achieving "peak carbon" by 2030 and "carbon neutrality" by 2060.
By 2060, China's carbon emissions will enter a "neutral" phase, with an estimated 2.6 billion tonnes of carbon emissions, representing a 74.8% reduction in carbon emissions compared to 2020.
It is worth noting here that "carbon neutral" does not mean zero carbon dioxide emissions, but rather that the total amount of carbon dioxide or greenhouse gas emissions generated directly or indirectly by the production of enterprises and personal activities are offset by their own carbon dioxide or greenhouse gas emissions in the form of afforestation, energy saving and emission reduction, so as to achieve positive and negative offsetting and achieve relative "zero emissions".
"Double carbon" strategy leads to change in generation side pattern
Our top three sectors with high carbon emissions are currently: electricity and heating (51%), manufacturing and construction (28%), and transportation (10%).
In the electricity supply sector, which accounts for the highest share of the country's electricity generation capacity of 800 million kWh in 2020, fossil energy generation is nearly 500 million kWh, or 63%, while new energy generation is 300 million kWh, or 37%.
Driven by the "double carbon" policy to reduce carbon emissions, the national power generation mix will see significant changes.
By the carbon peak stage in 2030, the proportion of new energy generation will continue to climb to 42%. After 2030, with the improvement of energy storage infrastructure and other supporting equipment, it is expected that by 2060 China will have completed the transition from fossil energy-based power generation to new energy-based power generation, with the proportion of new energy generation reaching over 80%.
Energy storage market sees new breakthrough
With the explosion of the new energy generation side of the market, the energy storage industry has also seen a new breakthrough.
Energy storage for new energy generation (photovoltaic, wind power) is inextricably linked.
Photovoltaic power generation and wind power have strong randomness and geographical restrictions, resulting in strong uncertainties in power generation and frequency on the power generation side, which will bring great impact pressure on the grid side in the process of grid connection, so the construction of energy storage stations cannot be delayed.
Energy storage stations can not only effectively solve the "abandoned light and wind" problem, but also "peak and frequency regulation" so that the power generation and frequency on the power generation side can match the planned curve on the grid side, thus achieving smooth access to the grid for new energy generation.
At present, China's energy storage market is still in its infancy compared to foreign markets, and with the continuous improvement of China's water and other infrastructure.
Pumped storage is still dominant in the market, with 36GW of pumped storage installed in the Chinese market in 2020, much higher than the 5GW of electrochemical storage installed; however, chemical storage has the advantages of not being restricted by geography and flexible configuration, and will grow faster in the future; it is expected that electrochemical storage in China will gradually overtake pumped storage in 2060, reaching 160GW of installed capacity.
At this stage in the new energy generation side of the project bidding, many local governments will specify that the new energy generation station with storage not less than 10%-20%, and the charging time is not less than 1-2 hours, it can be seen that the "distribution and storage policy" will bring very considerable growth for the generation side of the electrochemical energy storage market.
However, at this stage, as the profit model and cost transfer of power generation side electrochemical energy storage is not yet very clear, resulting in a low internal rate of return, the vast majority of energy storage stations are mostly policy-led construction, and the issue of business model is still to be resolved.
Post time: Jul-05-2022